Move over 1.5C, 2C has just passed the lips of the World Meteorological Organization. There's now a chance - albeit a very small one - that one of the next five years could be 2C above pre-industrial temperatures. A new WMO report shows how drastically we've changed our climate already, and how drastically we will continue to change it in the coming years. But what else are we in store for? Let's find out. ################################################## Contents 00:00 – Intro 01:06 – The last 5 years 02:06 – The next 5 years 02:47 – How long is long enough? 05:14 – 2 degrees C? 06:15 – Support the channel #ClimateChange #TemperatureRise ################################################## Special thanks to my Patreon subscribers, including my Patreon Saints: Steven Cowling, Eliot Bryant, Baerbel Winkler, Patrick Hillberg, Michael Unterweger, James Harley Gorrell & Gary Stark. You all rock ♥️ Join them at www.patreon.com/dr_gilbz ################################################## References & Resources WMO report - https://wmo.int/publication-series/wmo-global-annual-decadal-climate-update-2025-2029 Copernicus reporting on 2C anomaly in nov 2023 - https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-temperature-exceeds-2degc-above-pre-industrial-average-17-november Bevacqua et al. (2025) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02246-9 https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2 Cannon (2025) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02247-8 Met Office warming dashboard - https://climate.metoffice.cloud/current_warming.html Betts et al. (2023) https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03775-z

Ice loss from the polar ice sheets will lock us in to multi-metres of sea level rise over the (very) long term. Even today's warming of 1.3 C will result in coastline-altering sea level rise. But how fast seas rise is critically important when it comes to adaptation - and by now it's pretty much the only thing we can control. New paper here: Stokes et al. (2025) https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02299-w Sea level animation using data from NASA-SSH satellite product, see e.g. https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/dataset/NASA_SSH_GMSL_INDICATOR# https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5516/ Additional video content from NASA-JPL/Caltech/NOAA ################################################## Contents 00:00 – Redrawing the map 01:25 – Sea level rise today 02:21 – Timescales 04:53 – The evidence 06:21 – Tipping points 07:12 – This hurts 08:51 – Net Zero and beyond 09:55 – We know what to do 10:45 – Support the channel #ClimateChange #SeaLevelRise ################################################## Special thanks to my Patreon subscribers, including my Patreon Saints: Steven Cowling, Eliot Bryant, Baerbel Winkler, Patrick Hillberg, Michael Unterweger, James Harley Gorrell & Gary Stark. You all rock ♥️ Join them at www.patreon.com/dr_gilbz ################################################## References & Resources Stokes et al. (2025) https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02299-w Hamlington et al. (2024) https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01761-5 Bevacqua et al. (2025) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02246-9 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/may/20/sea-level-rise-migration https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20231130-climate-crisis-the-15c-global-warming-threshold-explained https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached/ https://thelastglaciers.com/sea-level-rise https://www.thesciencebreaker.org/breaks/earth-space/pliocene-sea-level-snapshots DeConto & Pollard (2016) https://www.nature.com/articles/nature17145 Stokes et al. (2022) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04946-0 DeConto et al. (2021) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03427-0 Box et al. (2022) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01441-2 Haywood et al. (2013) https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/191/2013/cp-9-191-2013.html Boers & Rypdal (2021) https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2024192118 King et al. (2017) https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-0001-2 Pattyn et al. (2018) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0305-8

New research shows that current levels of warming will cause sea level rise that is too fast to adapt to. We're in for several metres of sea level rise over many centuries - but the faster it happens, the harder it is to cope with. Paper: Stokes et al. (2025) Nature Comms Earth & Env, doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w

Last week I went to the European Geoscience Union's annual conference, a meeting of tens of thousands of Europe's climate and environmental scientists. This is where scientists present brand new results, methods and ideas - you won't find anything newer or more bleeding edge than this. So, I thought I'd share some of my observations and experiences with you - this is a rough n ready video, please let me know if you think I should do more of these ♥️ ################################################## Contents 00:00 – Ohh boi I'm pooped 00:28 – EGU25 00:55 – Cutting edge science 02:12 – Alex Bradley 03:30 – Anneke Vries 04:19 – Rachel Furner 05:43 – (US) science is suffering 07:49 – Support the channel #ClimateChange #EGU25 ################################################## Special thanks to my Patreon subscribers, including my Patreon Saints: Steven Cowling, Eliot Bryant, Baerbel Winkler, Patrick Hillberg, Michael Unterweger, James Harley Gorrell & Gary Stark. You all rock ♥️ Join them at www.patreon.com/dr_gilbz ##################################################

2024 was the world’s hottest year on record, and Europe is the continent warming the fastest. Extreme events ravaged Europe last year, including floods, wildfires and storms that claimed hundreds of lives and impacted many thousands more. To find out more, I spoke to Julien Nicolas, a co-author of the European State of the Climate Report, a huge undertaking that was put together by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting on behalf of the Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organisation. ################################################## Contents 00:00 – Smokin’ hot Europeans 00:24 – State of the European Climate Report 01:15 - Headlines 02:27 – Extremes 04:16 – Polar impacts 07:50 – Global context 08:54 – Future change 10:02 - What to do 10:56 - Thanks #ClimateChange #ESOTC2024 #ECMWF #CopernicusClimate #WMO ################################################## Thanks to Julien Nicolas and C3S for their time. Special thanks to my Patreon subscribers, including my Patreon Saints: Steven Cowling, Eliot Bryant, Baerbel Winkler, Patrick Hillberg, Michael Unterweger, James Harley Gorrell & Gary Stark. You all rock ♥️ Join them at www.patreon.com/dr_gilbz ################################################## References All figures included courtesy of Copernicus Climate Change Service, unless otherwise stated. REPORT: https://climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2024 Key takeaways: https://www.eumetsat.int/europes-hottest-year-signals-deepening-climate-crisis https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/apr/15/europe-storms-floods-and-wildfires-in-2024-affected-more-than-400000 https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Copernicus/Key_findings_from_the_European_State_of_the_Climate_Report Underlying data: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/ Other references: https://thebulletin.org/2019/10/disappearing-glaciers-before-and-after-views-of-mont-blanc/ https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/arctic-sea-ice-extent-levels-2024-minimum-set https://www.carbonbrief.org/arctic-sea-ice-winter-peak-in-2025-is-smallest-in-47-year-record/ https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/06/global-sea-ice-hit-all-time-minimum-in-february-scientists-say https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/arctic-sea-ice-sets-record-low-maximum-2025 https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-the-greenland-ice-sheet-fared-in-2024/ https://www.geo.uzh.ch/en/news/papers/2024/alpine-glaciers-lose-at-least-a-third-of-their-volume-by-2050.html

What’s going to happen to our climate in the coming years? Well, my friend: that’s the million-dollar question. And it’s hard to answer because human behaviour is pretty dang unpredicatable. Scientists use scenarios to project into the future and imagine what might happen. So here, I’m trying to do just that: presenting a timeline of a life that started in 2010, and painting a picture of what the world might look like by 2100. These are scenarios that climate scientists like me use all the time for our models, and the same ones that you may have seen in IPCC reports. For more info on scenarios, check the references and resources below. Scenario 1: SSP2-4.5 Scenario 2: SSP1-2.6 ################################################## Contents 00:00 – Climate Wild Card 00:36 – Climate change so far 02:00 – We have a choice 02:14 – Choice 1: keep doing the same 03:49 – Choice 2: an alternative 06:59 – Disaster averted? 07:09 – The choice is ours 08:38 - Thanks #ClimateChange #Future ################################################## Special thanks to my Patreon subscribers, including my Patreon Saints: Steven Cowling, Eliot Bryant, Baerbel Winkler, Patrick Hillberg, Michael Unterweger, James Harley Gorrell, Gary Stark & Martin Palmer. You all rock ♥️ ################################################## References and resources Betts et al. (2023) - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03775-z NASA temperature dataset - https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ HadCRU temperature dataset - https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/ Berkeley Earth temperature dataset - https://berkeleyearth.org/data/ Climate Stripes - https://showyourstripes.info/ IPCC 2021 multi-model mean projections - AR6 WG1 Ch 4 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter04.pdf Armstrong-Mackay et al. (2022) - https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950 Scenarios and projections -https://open.oregonstate.education/climatechange/chapter/impacts/ Scenarios - https://www.dkrz.de/en/communication/climate-simulations/cmip6-en/the-ssp-scenarios Carbon Brief explainer - https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change/ O’Neill et al. (2014) - https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2

Antarctica is famously cold. And snowy. But in a new paper, I show that rain is falling at sub-zero temperatures over the climatically sensitive Thwaites and Pine Island ice shelves. Using state-of-the-art modelling, we look at the extreme precipitation that is brought to West Antarctica by atmospheric rivers. But what does extreme snow and rain mean for West Antarctica? Watch on to find out... ################################################## Contents 00:00 - Surprise! 00:30 - Back to West Antarctica 01:22 - Dang extreme precip 02:55 - Freezing rain 04:00 - Rain on snow 04:57 - Implications 05:37 - Thanks #ClimateChange #Antarctica ################################################## Check out my Carbon Brief guest post here: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-atmospheric-rivers-are-bringing-rain-to-west-antarctica/ Read the full paper here: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-597-2025, 2025 Full citation: Gilbert, E., Pishniak, D., Torres, J. A., Orr, A., Maclennan, M., Wever, N., and Verro, K.: Extreme precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers over West Antarctic ice shelves: insights from kilometre-scale regional climate modelling, The Cryosphere, 19, 597–618, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-597-2025, 2025. ################################################## This work was funded by PolarRES, an EU Horizon 2020 research project under grant agreement number 101003590. Special thanks to my Patreon subscribers, including my Patreon Saints: Steven Cowling, Eliot Bryant, Baerbel Winkler, Patrick Hillberg, Michael Unterweger, James Harley Gorrell & Gary Stark. You all rock ♥️ ################################################## References and resources Thwaites Glacier outlook - https://thwaitesglacier.org/news/grim-outlook-antarcticas-thwaites-glacier Impacts of winds and topography on the Antarctic Peninsula - https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-ranking-the-reasons-why-the-larsen-c-ice-shelf-is-melting/ Antarctic extreme events - https://www.frontiersin.org/news/2023/08/08/antarctic-extreme-events-martin-siegert Antarctic ice melt interactive - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/10/26/climate/antarctica-glaciers-melt.html Atmospheric rivers in the USA - https://lamont.columbia.edu/news/climate-expert-explains-why-atmospheric-rivers-are-causing-historic-rainfall-california Atmospheric rivers in the UK - https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the-role-of-atmospheric-rivers-in-uk-winter-floods/ Morlighem et al. (2020) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0510-8 Donat-Magnin et al. (2021) https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/571/2021/ Siegert et al. (2023) https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/environmental-science/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1229283/full Gilbert et al. (2025) https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-597-2025 Turner et al. (2019) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL081517 Nicola et al. (2023) https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/2563/2023/tc-17-2563-2023.html Wille et al. (2021) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020JD033788 Wille et al (2022) https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00422-9 Maclennan et al. (2023) https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/865/2023/ Vignon et al. (2021) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL092281

Drought and strong winds are combining to make these some of the most powerful wildfires to grip southern California in years. Several people have tragically lost their lives and thousands have lost homes and businesses. Unfortunately, climate change is fuelling such these events, making them more frequent and more destructive.